Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.007077 0.007967 0.008927 0.010041 0.011300 0.012677 0.014301
2026-02-01 0.005539 0.006736 0.008133 0.009888 0.012034 0.014580 0.017836
2026-02-08 0.004750 0.006093 0.007748 0.009943 0.012784 0.016347 0.021172
2026-02-15 0.004139 0.005543 0.007353 0.009861 0.013260 0.017724 0.024060
2026-02-22 0.003775 0.005250 0.007224 0.010068 0.014080 0.019565 0.027681
2026-03-01 0.003311 0.004758 0.006761 0.009749 0.014114 0.020298 0.029790
2026-03-08 0.002967 0.004394 0.006430 0.009563 0.014292 0.021212 0.032198
2026-03-15 0.002658 0.004047 0.006084 0.009311 0.014328 0.021894 0.034288
2026-03-22 0.002537 0.003966 0.006120 0.009625 0.015236 0.023946 0.038650
2026-03-29 0.002402 0.003848 0.006083 0.009817 0.015957 0.025752 0.042766
2026-04-05 0.002285 0.003748 0.006064 0.010029 0.016717 0.027670 0.047217
2026-04-12 0.002117 0.003548 0.005865 0.009924 0.016939 0.028708 0.050256
2026-04-19 0.001977 0.003387 0.005722 0.009908 0.017319 0.030062 0.054001
2026-04-26 0.001825 0.003194 0.005509 0.009752 0.017440 0.030979 0.057053
2026-05-03 0.001725 0.003080 0.005421 0.009806 0.017936 0.032587 0.061500
2026-05-10 0.001612 0.002935 0.005267 0.009726 0.018173 0.033737 0.065178
2026-05-17 0.001552 0.002880 0.005268 0.009930 0.018953 0.035949 0.071090
2026-05-24 0.001424 0.002689 0.005006 0.009615 0.018715 0.036205 0.073152
2026-05-31 0.001325 0.002546 0.004821 0.009432 0.018714 0.036913 0.076175
2026-06-07 0.001226 0.002396 0.004612 0.009183 0.018560 0.037299 0.078558
2026-06-14 0.001202 0.002390 0.004680 0.009493 0.019560 0.040087 0.086251
2026-06-21 0.001165 0.002355 0.004690 0.009683 0.020324 0.042445 0.093226
2026-06-28 0.001133 0.002326 0.004708 0.009891 0.021143 0.044979 0.100815